Community Corner

A Look at La Niña

Global climate phenomenon expected to continue for several more months, casting uncertainty on what winter will bring to New Jersey.

If you follow meteorology news closely, you might have noticed the headlines this week about La Niña, the Pacific Ocean cooling phenomenon that can have a major impact on weather around the globe. 

The system was probably to blame for the disastrous winter storms we saw in Jersey this time last year, and it's back: experts say La Niña has restrengthened and will likely stick around through the spring.

What it is: Like its more well-known brother El Niño, La Niña is an oceanic current phenomenon that occurs in the equatorial Pacific. While El Niño is characterized by warming sea surface temperatures, La Niña brings a drop in water temperatures, which can have far-reaching effects on weather around the world.

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In general, the effects of La Niña (the girl) are the opposite of those of El Niño (the boy). Where he brings flooding, she brings drought. Where he heats things up, she heralds unusually chilly temperatures. 

In many parts of the U.S., the effects of La Niña are often predictable and noticeable: colder, wetter weather in the Pacific Northwest; hotter, drier weather in the Southwest and Southeast; colder temperatures in the Great Lakes region and the North; and often, but not always, colder, snowier winters in the Northeast and Midatlantic. 

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The latest La Niña developed in 2010 and lasted through early 2011. It’s since strengthened again, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and is expected to last for several more months before petering out in the spring.

Meteorologists lay blame on the system for a lot of the severe weather the country has seen in the last year-plus, including the record-shattering snows of late 2010 and early 2011 that buried parts of New Jersey and, potentially, the devastating tornado season in the Midwest.

What we might see: La Niña is a little weaker than it was this time last year, say NOAA experts, so it’s probable the effects won’t be as severe. Forecasters say there’s an increased chance of higher temperatures and more drought in the already parched South, colder weather in the central and northern areas of the country and above-average precipitation in northern states.

The effects on New Jersey are tricky to predict. Our part of the east coast is a bit of a question mark when it comes to La Niña effects – it’s sandwiched between the warm, dry weather and the chilly wet weather. In the past, La Niña winters have been unsettled here, and tough to predict – though, on occasion, "the girl" can deliver a whopper, as we saw last year.

Why it’s important: Understanding these regularly occurring patterns in the global climate is a key part of predicting some serious disasters, like floods, storms and droughts, says NOAA. And getting a better grip on the earth’s natural climate variability is a key part of gaining insight into global climate change, say experts.


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